Wednesday, November 16, 2016

The US Election




Many of you have not heard much from me since the election. Part of the reason for that is that I had planned a trip to Los Angeles the Thursday after the election. I had planned to celebrate Clinton’s victory while there. Of course, that victory celebration did not happen, although I did have a great time there with friends and others.

Yes, my prediction for the presidential election was incorrect. As a matter of fact, upwards of eighty percent of the astrological community got it wrong. Much of the polling was inaccurate as well. Many have put forth explanations for why and how they were wrong. I understand that because they (like me) take Astrology seriously. I don’t personally feel a need to explain anything, but I will give some analysis. But, it’s important for me first to say that I got it wrong. I got it wrong!

When I did my initial prediction, I tried to explain why US presidential elections do not lend themselves to an easy prediction. That is because it’s actually 51 (if we include DC, which we should) different elections, and it does not happen at an exact time. The campaign lasts for roughly one and a half years. And, we vote for about 45 days before the actual stated election date (this year, Nov. 8). Those early votes often matter - Obama won big on early voting in 2012, but lost by one point on election day that year. I tried to correct for that by looking at what I thought would be the three most important swing states - Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. They were the closest states in the 2012 election (except North Carolina, which I did not think would matter in the 2016 presidential election).

I got Virginia and Ohio correct - Clinton won Virginia and Trump won Ohio. I missed Florida (which is always very close). I was correct that Latinos came out in droves, and they did vote for Clinton. What I missed was that Clinton lost the White vote (especially the White working class) by more than Obama. This was especially true in the all important I-4 corridor. Astrologically, I focused on the Sun (leaders) and the Moon (the people). That analysis was consistent with my analysis of the demographic changes in Florida (i.e. many more Latinos - mostly from Puerto Rico). However, Florida has a stellium in Aquarius (Saturn, Neptune, Venus, and Mercury) that is also in trine aspect to Trump’s natal Uranus/Sun/NN in Gemini. Stelliums can produce quite a bit of energy and can sometimes overpower other influences that are strong in a chart. In addition, Astrotheme puts Florida’s Ascendant at 8 Gemini (admitted to the Union at 10:45 AM on March 3, 1845). That places the MC at 20 Aquarius, which also trines Trump’s natal Sun/Uranus/NN. The Moon passed over and conjoined all those planets on election day. I have also gained renewed interest and respect for progressed charts in the last few months. So, I looked at Florida’s progressed chart. It shows progressed Sun conjunct Trump’s natal Ascendant in late Leo (within a one degree orb). Trump was way behind in vote totals prior to election day (the early vote). But, he WAY overperformed on election day in the state and won by just a little over 100K votes (about one percent).

I clearly missed on the important swing states as well. I either picked the wrong ones, or I should have added three more - Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. None of those three states (PA, WI, and/or MI) voted for a GOP candidate for president in (at least) the previous six elections. So, who knew they would switch this election. We knew early on that Trump would go after Pennsylvania, but GOP candidates for president always do. Until this year, they always lost by five plus points (in the previous two elections anyway). So, the map has changed. It most likely will change even more in future elections because of demographic changes.

What will happen from here? Well, Trump has both very good (or easy) aspects and also some very difficult (or hard) ones right now. He is now experiencing his Jupiter return (which is probably one of the strongest positive aspects which contributed to his victory). I’m thinking it may cause him to over-reach in some ways, however. There already seems to be a lot of chaos with the transition team. Transiting Saturn will soon oppose his natal Uranus, Sun, and North Node. Saturn will also conjoin his natal Moon. Those aspects are very difficult. The transition will most likely not go smoothly, and Trump may be noticing that the presidency is not exactly a big fun party. That could lead to some emotional heaviness. Transiting Mars opposes his natal Ascendant/Mars on the day that the Electoral College meets to place their votes. The meeting could be contentious (for Trump) as some Electors may want to rebel. That rebellion is unlikely to be successful. It appears that he will push onward and be sworn into Office on January 20, 2017 (Inauguration Day).



No comments:

Post a Comment