US Presidential Election - Florida

When making a prediction for the US presidential election, I like to compare the astrological charts of the candidates to the horoscopes for the states. I’m unable to do this for all fifty states, so I stick with the battleground states. And, the biggest battleground state with the most electoral votes is the state of Florida. The free will of human beings is involved and what is going on in the world and in the USA is important as well. I also like to look at the polls. It’s as good a tool for such predictions as Astrology, because such elections are very difficult to predict.

Predicting the election in Florida is particularly difficult, because it is always very close. Even in the 2008 election, Barack Obama only won Florida by a 2.8% margin. In the 2016 election, Trump won Florida by a 1.2% margin. In addition, Florida election integrity is not the best. Everyone remembers the hanging chads in the 2000 presidential election. And, Trump seems determined to make voting more difficult this year. With those things in mind, I’ll continue with the analysis.

Florida has a stellium in late Aquarius which is in a trine aspect to Donald Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun in Gemini (in the tenth). That is very favorable. However, Florida’s natal Saturn is in opposition to Donald Trump’s natal Pluto. The Florida business community might not be happy with the President - especially at this time. Florida’s progressed Moon is at 20 Gemini on November 3, 2020. That is a very favorable aspect as well - especially because the Moon signifies the people. Florida’s P Sun is conjunct Donald Trump’s P Sun. It’s likely that the Governor will do everything he can to deliver the election to the President. Florida’s progressed Mercury is at 27 Virgo and in square aspect to Trump’s natal Sun. The Florida media is not likely to be very friendly to the President. This may counter some of the Governor’s efforts on Trump’s behalf. But, overall, Trump’s chart(s) looks very good when compared to Florida’s chart(s). 

Joe Biden has at least one very favorable aspect compared to Florida’s chart(s). His natal Sun and Venus in Scorpio is conjunct Florida’s natal NN. This would tend to indicate that he is tied in with Florida’s destiny. And, his running mate may be very beneficial to his prospects in the state. Florida’s P Mercury (in late Virgo) and P Venus (in very early Libra) favorably activates Biden’s N Neptune (in the tenth)  in early Libra trine N Uranus in early Gemini (and conjunct his N Descendant). This is another indication that Biden’s running partner may help his prospects in the state. On the downside, Florida’s stellium in late Aquarius is square to Biden’s Sun. 

Astrologically, it looks quite close as well. But, since Trump is the Incumbent, I’d have to give this portion of the analysis to Trump.

However, what has happened with regard to this coronavirus pandemic may make a big difference in this case. President Trump has bungled and really screwed up the response to the pandemic. And, the pandemic has hit Florida really hard. So, Trump being the Incumbent may actually work against him this year - in a big way. Older Floridians are abandoning him at this time, and Biden’s polling is looking very good in the state at this point. On August 16, Nate Silver’s 538 site had Biden ahead by 5.1 points, and the RCP polling average shows Biden ahead by 5.0 points. Look for those numbers to tighten a bit as pollsters switch from registered voter screens to likely voter screens. Anyway, if the election were to be held today, Biden would probably win. But, we will need to wait a while longer to see if this trend holds. If it does, I’d give Florida to Joe Biden.  

Trump really needs Florida to win a second term. If not, he will need to win all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He is polling poorly in all of them. Biden just needs one of those states if he wins Florida. Or, he could substitute with Arizona or North Carolina. His polling numbers suggest that he is ahead in Arizona and it’s about even in North Carolina.

UPDATE 1:

We got three Florida polls today - October 6, 2020. The University Of North Florida poll is the one everyone seems to be talking about. This poll shows Biden up by six points. Nate Silver rates this pollster A/B (that’s very good). This pollster interviewed 3,142 likely voters. They oversampled Latino voters, and they even divided them out by nationality - Cuban, Puerto Rican, Mexican, etc. They show Biden ahead with Latinos 54-39. That looks reasonable - the gap is just a little bit less than Clinton got. So, this poll looks very impressive to me. The MOE is 1.8%. Suffolk University also released a poll for Florida showing the race even (45-45). Nate Silver rates this pollster A (also an excellent pollster). However, they only interviewed 500 likely voters. The MOE is 4.4%. 500 voters is not enough in a state as diverse as Florida, in my view. So, I’m not that impressed with this one. Change Research also polled Florida, and they showed a 4 point lead for Biden. Nate Silver rates this pollster C-. The polling average is (as always) more important. The 538 polling average shows Biden in the lead in Florida by 3.5 points. And, RCP shows Biden in the lead by 3.5 points as well. The final RCP polling average only missed the final actual Florida result by one point in 2016. More importantly, the gap is growing as opposed to narrowing. Trump has very little time to turn that around, and they are already voting in Florida (lots of mail-in ballots). And, Biden is still doing very well among seniors (those aged 65 and over) compared to previous years for the democratic candidates in Florida. So, I’ve decided to call Florida for Biden.

Florida election officials begin counting ballots 22 days prior to the election, so we should be able to get a call for Florida on election night (maybe late though). And, with 29 electoral votes, we might be able to call the election the same night.