2020 US Presidential Election - Wisconsin (Update)

Many of the issues that I mentioned for Michigan and Pennsylvania are also true in Wisconsin. Wisconsin has traditionally been a (light) blue state. As a matter of fact, prior to 2016, a Republican candidate for president had not won the state of Wisconsin since 1984 (the state did go for Ronald Reagan that year). However, they have voted of Republican governors. And, during the Scott Walker years, the state became extremely gerrymandered (toward Republicans) and efforts at voter suppression have been strong. They’ve made it quite difficult to vote, especially for minority voters in Milwaukee and Madison. That’s probably why the Black vote was down so much in the state in 2016 - just a bit of an uptick in Black voter turnout would have helped Clinton to carry the state. 

Biden should win Wisconsin easily were it not for efforts to suppress the vote. Trump can win a second term if he wins in Wisconsin even if he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan provided he wins all the other states (and, districts in Maine and Nebraska) he won in 2016. And, he is putting a great deal of effort in keeping Wisconsin in his column whereas he has pretty much abandoned Michigan.

The Sun in Wisconsin’s horoscope is in Gemini as is Mercury, which favors Trump. Mercury is trine Trump’s natal Uranus/NN/Sun in the tenth. In Wisconsin’s chart, the Moon is in late Aries (or perhaps early Taurus) and conjunct Pluto and perhaps Uranus. These planets square Trump’s N Saturn/Venus in late Cancer. Wisconsin’s Venus is conjunct Trump’s natal MC. But, Saturn is square Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun from Pisces. So, his synastry is a bit mixed here - but, mostly positive.  

That Pluto/Uranus conjunction (with the Moon somewhere in the area) might be symbolism of some of the folks that wanted to shake things up in 2016. Hopefully, these folks have gotten their fill of shake ups and excitement. But, with this aspect, that might not be the case. I think most of the rest of us have though.

Wisconsin’s P Sun is conjunct Biden’s N Sun in Scorpio. I’m sure that the current Governor of Wisconsin supports Joe Biden, which is a positive. But, P Neptune is in square aspect to Biden’s N Sun. Wisconsin’s N Saturn is in trine aspect to Biden’s N Sun as well. Wisconsin’s N Mars/Jupiter is in trine aspect to Biden’s N Sun. Biden’s synastry looks better here, but not by a lot.   

On August 19, 2020, Nate Silver’s 538 blog polling average shows Biden in the lead by 6.7 points. And, the RCP polling average has Biden in the lead by 6.5 points. But, here’s the thing. On election day in 2016, the RCP polling average was 6.0 in favor of Hillary Clinton. That should not have been such an outlier. I blame voter suppression efforts for much of that. So, Biden should win Wisconsin, but I’m going to call it a tossup for now.

So, now I’ve predicted Joe Biden to win in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and I’m leaving Florida and Wisconsin as tossups for now. Next up is Arizona.    

UPDATE 1 - CNN released a poll for Wisconsin today (September 15, 2020) which showed Biden in the lead by ten points. And, this was a likely voter poll. Hillary was not getting polls like this in 2016 this late in the election cycle. And, it’s not just CNN. Even GOP pollster, Rasmussen Records, had a recent poll in the state that showed Biden up eight points. This election cycle, the polls have been remarkably stable, although Biden’s numbers have gone up slightly in this state. 538 has the polling average at Biden plus 6.8 points, and the RCP average shows Biden up 6.8 points right now. Both Biden and Harris have recently visited this state, and I think that has helped his polling. Could an October surprise come along to change this dynamic? Sure, but it’s not likely with such a stable race, and with Biden's numbers at 50 or above in so many polls. Therefore, I have decided to call Wisconsin for Biden.