Arizona is one of those Republican states that has been slowly moving toward the Democratic Party for years. Ronald Reagan won the state by 33.9% in the 1984 election. Donald Trump only won the state in 2016 by 3.5%. And in 2018, a democrat - Kyrsten Sinema - won that state’s US Senate race by 2.4%. I think that Joe Biden may just follow suit in 2020 and win the state. Joe Biden needs to win Florida, Wisconsin, or Arizona to win the election (in my view). I think he has the best chance to win Arizona even though the polling averages shows a closer race in Arizona. On August 20, 2020, the Nate Silver’s 538 site’s polling average shows Joe Biden ahead in Arizona by 3.6 points. And, the RCP polling average shows Joe Biden ahead in Arizona by 2.0 points.
The Sun in Arizona’s chart is in trine aspect to Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun in the tenth. The Governor is a Republican and supports Trump. But, there are a lot of hard or negative aspects as well. Arizona’s Mars is in square aspect to Trump’s Ascendant and P Sun. Arizona’s Saturn is in square aspect to Trump’s N Pluto in the twelfth. Arizona’s Mercury is in opposition to Trump’s N Pluto. Arizona’s P Uranus is in an opposition to Trump’s N Pluto as well. This synastry is not very good.
Arizona’s N and P Uranus is in a sextile aspect to Biden’s Sun. And, Arizona’s N and P Jupiter is located in Biden’s first house and is widely conjunct Biden’s N Ascendant. Arizona’s N Moon and Venus (in Capricorn) is in trine aspect to Biden’s N MC. This is better synastry.
There are a number of reasons that I’m fairly optimistic (for Biden) about the Arizona vote this year. First, Biden is the type of moderate democrat that the folks in Arizona will vote for. A more liberal candidate would not likely perform as well.
Arizona also has a US Senate race this year. The Democratic candidate, Mark Kelly, is quite popular and is polling quite well. He is the husband of former US Congresswoman Gabby Giffords who is also very popular in Arizona. She was shot in a mass shooting in the Tucson metropolitan area in 2011. She was one of the survivors, although she was shot in the head. I believe that Mark Kelly will be able to help pull Biden over the finish line in Arizona.
In addition, Biden is a close friend to former US Senator John McCain and his family. McCain’s family is supporting Joe Biden. McCain is probably the most popular politician in Arizona. This will also be quite helpful.
So, with Arizona’s eleven electoral votes, I predict that Joe Biden will win the US Presidential election in 2020.
No comments:
Post a Comment