While Trump won Pennsylvania (by 0.7 points) in 2016, the state is actually a light blue state. Prior to 2016, no Republican running for US President had won the state since 1988. It’s usually fairly close, although Obama won the state by 10 points in 2008. But, it’s usually 5 points or less.
So, how did Trump win the state? Well, Trump ran as a different kind of Republican in 2016. He sounded like a populist - a bit like Bernie Sanders. He was going to save coal miner jobs, keep manufacturing jobs here in the country, and was going to renegotiate trade agreements to the advantage of American workers. Many Americans bought in hook, line, and sinker - including those in Pennsylvania. He has not done any of those things. But, in the state of Pennsylvania’s natal chart, Jupiter is conjunct Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun in the tenth. Beaten down White working class voters in the state probably felt optimistic about Trump’s bid for the presidency. Many of them know better now, I suspect. In Pennsylvania’s progressed chart, Chiron is conjunct Trump’s natal Uranus/NN/Sun and Mars is in square aspect from Virgo.
Black voter turnout was down a bit in 2016 (from 2012 turnout). Trump has shown his true colors with regard to the African American community, and I suspect that the Black turnout will be up quite a bit, which will help Biden. Pennsylvania’s natal Uranus is conjunct Trump’s natal Saturn/Venus in late Cancer. And, it is in trine aspect to Biden’s Sun in late Scorpio. Pennsylvania’s progressed Jupiter is conjunct Biden’s progressed Jupiter.
It’s pretty close, astrologically speaking. But, the other factors mentioned above will cause the state to go for Joe Biden. Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic will add to Biden’s lead. The fact that Biden was born in Scranton will also help him win the state. On August 17, Nate Silver’s 538 blog has Biden up 6.4 points and the RCP polling average has Biden up 6.4 points. I think that gap will narrow some by election day - maybe Biden by 3.5 points.
No comments:
Post a Comment