2020 US Presidential Election Prediction

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in the election by 2.87M votes and by 2.1%. But, she managed to lose the electoral college by quite a bit. Trump barely won three states - all under 1%. Trump needed some luck to have been able to do that - it can happen but does not usually happen and not by this much. The astrological aspect that I give credit for this luck is Trump’s Jupiter return, which was in effect at the time of the election. Indeed, a Jupiter return can be quite fortunate as I’ve seen some of this good fortune when I’ve experienced a Jupiter return myself. But, I did not think it could be powerful enough to give someone an election like this. I was wrong. Trump does not have the same extremely good luck via such a transit/aspect like this in 2020. Both Trump and Biden have Jupiter trining their MC’s at various times during the year. And, they both have negative or hard aspects from transiting Neptune. It’s a tossup as far as I can see with regard to transits.

The July 5, 2020 lunar eclipse in Capricorn is opposite the Sun in the USA’s natal chart (the DOI charts). This points to an impending change at the top. And, in the tenth house in this chart, we find the Moon, Jupiter, Pluto, and Asteroid Pallas Athena. The new leader will be someone caring, compassionate, emotional, and empathetic (the Moon). S/he will be optimistic about America’s future and someone who believes in the rule of law (Jupiter). It will be someone who is powerful, intense, and transformative (Pluto - and is consistent with the USA’s Pluto return). It will be someone who carefully plans and strategizes before taking action (Pallas Athena). That sounds a lot like Joe Biden to me. Kamala Harris fits that description as well (especially Pallas Athena), but not as well. 

I also agree with other Astrologers that the solar eclipse on December 14, 2020 does not bode well for Trump’s chances. Sagittarius is at the top of the chart, and his natal Sun/NN/Uranus are at the bottom of the chart. Biden’s Ascendant is in Sagittarius. 

When making a prediction for the US presidential election, I like to compare the astrological charts of the candidates to the horoscopes for the states. I’m unable to do this for all fifty states, so I stick with the battleground states. The free will of human beings is involved and what is going on in the world and in the USA is important as well. I also like to look at the polls. It’s as good a tool for such predictions as Astrology, because such elections are very difficult to predict. The states that I’ve done an analysis for are as follows (and, you can click the hyperlink to read the analysis): Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.  

There are other battleground states this year - Ohio, Georgia, Texas, Iowa, North Carolina, and Minnesota. Trump did not win in Minnesota in 2016, and I don’t see him winning it in 2020 either. Biden could win any of the other states or all of them (if the election turns into a blowout in his favor), but I don’t think that will happen right now. At any rate, I predict that Joe Biden will win the 2020 US election. 

If you don't already have the charts of the candidates or the USA, you can find those here.

2020 US Presidential Election - Arizona

Arizona is one of those Republican states that has been slowly moving toward the Democratic Party for years. Ronald Reagan won the state by 33.9% in the 1984 election. Donald Trump only won the state in 2016 by 3.5%. And in 2018, a democrat - Kyrsten Sinema - won that state’s US Senate race by 2.4%. I think that Joe Biden may just follow suit in 2020 and win the state. Joe Biden needs to win Florida, Wisconsin, or Arizona to win the election (in my view). I think he has the best chance to win Arizona even though the polling averages shows a closer race in Arizona. On August 20, 2020, the Nate Silver’s 538 site’s polling average shows Joe Biden ahead in Arizona by 3.6 points. And, the RCP polling average shows Joe Biden ahead in Arizona by 2.0 points.   

The Sun in Arizona’s chart is in trine aspect to Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun in the tenth. The Governor is a Republican and supports Trump. But, there are a lot of hard or negative aspects as well. Arizona’s Mars is in square aspect to Trump’s Ascendant and P Sun. Arizona’s Saturn is in square aspect to Trump’s N Pluto in the twelfth. Arizona’s Mercury is in opposition to Trump’s N Pluto. Arizona’s P Uranus is in an opposition to Trump’s N Pluto as well. This synastry is not very good.

Arizona’s N and P Uranus is in a sextile aspect to Biden’s Sun. And, Arizona’s N  and P Jupiter is located in Biden’s first house and is widely conjunct Biden’s N Ascendant. Arizona’s N Moon and Venus (in Capricorn) is in trine aspect to Biden’s N MC. This is better synastry.  

There are a number of reasons that I’m fairly optimistic (for Biden) about the Arizona vote this year. First, Biden is the type of moderate democrat that the folks in Arizona will vote for. A more liberal candidate would not likely perform as well. 

Arizona also has a US Senate race this year. The Democratic candidate, Mark Kelly, is quite popular and is polling quite well. He is the husband of former US Congresswoman Gabby Giffords who is also very popular in Arizona. She was shot in a mass shooting in the Tucson metropolitan area in 2011. She was one of the survivors, although she was shot in the head. I believe that Mark Kelly will be able to help pull Biden over the finish line in Arizona.

In addition, Biden is a close friend to former US Senator John McCain and his family. McCain’s family is supporting Joe Biden. McCain is probably the most popular politician in Arizona. This will also be quite helpful.

This follows my posts about the election in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.     

So, with Arizona’s eleven electoral votes, I predict that Joe Biden will win the US Presidential election in 2020.

 

2020 US Presidential Election - Wisconsin (Update)

Many of the issues that I mentioned for Michigan and Pennsylvania are also true in Wisconsin. Wisconsin has traditionally been a (light) blue state. As a matter of fact, prior to 2016, a Republican candidate for president had not won the state of Wisconsin since 1984 (the state did go for Ronald Reagan that year). However, they have voted of Republican governors. And, during the Scott Walker years, the state became extremely gerrymandered (toward Republicans) and efforts at voter suppression have been strong. They’ve made it quite difficult to vote, especially for minority voters in Milwaukee and Madison. That’s probably why the Black vote was down so much in the state in 2016 - just a bit of an uptick in Black voter turnout would have helped Clinton to carry the state. 

Biden should win Wisconsin easily were it not for efforts to suppress the vote. Trump can win a second term if he wins in Wisconsin even if he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan provided he wins all the other states (and, districts in Maine and Nebraska) he won in 2016. And, he is putting a great deal of effort in keeping Wisconsin in his column whereas he has pretty much abandoned Michigan.

The Sun in Wisconsin’s horoscope is in Gemini as is Mercury, which favors Trump. Mercury is trine Trump’s natal Uranus/NN/Sun in the tenth. In Wisconsin’s chart, the Moon is in late Aries (or perhaps early Taurus) and conjunct Pluto and perhaps Uranus. These planets square Trump’s N Saturn/Venus in late Cancer. Wisconsin’s Venus is conjunct Trump’s natal MC. But, Saturn is square Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun from Pisces. So, his synastry is a bit mixed here - but, mostly positive.  

That Pluto/Uranus conjunction (with the Moon somewhere in the area) might be symbolism of some of the folks that wanted to shake things up in 2016. Hopefully, these folks have gotten their fill of shake ups and excitement. But, with this aspect, that might not be the case. I think most of the rest of us have though.

Wisconsin’s P Sun is conjunct Biden’s N Sun in Scorpio. I’m sure that the current Governor of Wisconsin supports Joe Biden, which is a positive. But, P Neptune is in square aspect to Biden’s N Sun. Wisconsin’s N Saturn is in trine aspect to Biden’s N Sun as well. Wisconsin’s N Mars/Jupiter is in trine aspect to Biden’s N Sun. Biden’s synastry looks better here, but not by a lot.   

On August 19, 2020, Nate Silver’s 538 blog polling average shows Biden in the lead by 6.7 points. And, the RCP polling average has Biden in the lead by 6.5 points. But, here’s the thing. On election day in 2016, the RCP polling average was 6.0 in favor of Hillary Clinton. That should not have been such an outlier. I blame voter suppression efforts for much of that. So, Biden should win Wisconsin, but I’m going to call it a tossup for now.

So, now I’ve predicted Joe Biden to win in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and I’m leaving Florida and Wisconsin as tossups for now. Next up is Arizona.    

UPDATE 1 - CNN released a poll for Wisconsin today (September 15, 2020) which showed Biden in the lead by ten points. And, this was a likely voter poll. Hillary was not getting polls like this in 2016 this late in the election cycle. And, it’s not just CNN. Even GOP pollster, Rasmussen Records, had a recent poll in the state that showed Biden up eight points. This election cycle, the polls have been remarkably stable, although Biden’s numbers have gone up slightly in this state. 538 has the polling average at Biden plus 6.8 points, and the RCP average shows Biden up 6.8 points right now. Both Biden and Harris have recently visited this state, and I think that has helped his polling. Could an October surprise come along to change this dynamic? Sure, but it’s not likely with such a stable race, and with Biden's numbers at 50 or above in so many polls. Therefore, I have decided to call Wisconsin for Biden.

2020 US Presidential Election - Michigan

Donald Trump won the state of Michigan by 0.23% (or, a little over 10K votes), but Michigan - like Pennsylvania - is usually a blue state. Prior to 2016, no Republican running for US President had won the state since 1988. The gap is usually a little wider in Michigan compared to Pennsylvania. Obama carried the state by 17 points in 2008 and by 9.5 points in 2012. Trump carried Michigan for some of the same reasons that he won in Pennsylvania. However, in Michigan, Hillary Clinton would have won the state in 2016 had Black voters shown up at the polls in numbers comparable to the Black turnout in 2012. That will not happen in 2020 with Kamala Harris on the ticket.

In Michigan’s horoscope, Mercury is in a trine aspect to Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun in the tenth house from Aquarius. But, Michigan’s progressed Mars in Libra is conjunct Trump’s N Neptune and squared his N Mercury. Michigan’s N and P Uranus is in opposition to Trump’s N Ascendant and P Sun. Michigan’s P Jupiter and P Venus is conjunct Trumps N Ascendant. So,it’s a mixed bag for Trump.

Michigan’s P Mars in early Libra and N Moon (in the same area) are in trine aspect to Biden’s N Uranus in Gemini and conjunct his N Neptune (in the tenth). But, Michigan’s N and P Uranus in Pisces is in square aspect to Biden’s N Uranus. Michigan’s N Ceres in Pisces is in trine aspect to Biden’s N Sun. This is a mixed bag as well, but it’s better than the Trump synastry. 

On August 18, 2020, Nate Silver’s 538 blog shows the polling average favoring Biden in Michigan by 7.4 points. And, the RCP polling average shows Biden ahead by 6.7 points. I think the race will tighten just a tiny bit - I’d give it to Biden by 6.5 points by election day.

So, I now have Biden winning Pennsylvania and Michigan, and I have Florida as a tossup for now. Next up is Wisconsin. 

2020 US Presidential Election - Pennsylvania

While Trump won Pennsylvania (by 0.7 points) in 2016, the state is actually a light blue state. Prior to 2016, no Republican running for US President had won the state since 1988. It’s usually fairly close, although Obama won the state by 10 points in 2008. But, it’s usually 5 points or less. 

So, how did Trump win the state? Well, Trump ran as a different kind of Republican in 2016. He sounded like a populist - a bit like Bernie Sanders. He was going to save coal miner jobs, keep manufacturing jobs here in the country, and was going to renegotiate trade agreements to the advantage of American workers. Many Americans bought in hook, line, and sinker - including those in Pennsylvania. He has not done any of those things. But, in the state of Pennsylvania’s natal chart, Jupiter is conjunct Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun in the tenth. Beaten down White working class voters in the state probably felt optimistic about Trump’s bid for the presidency. Many of them know better now, I suspect. In Pennsylvania’s progressed chart, Chiron is conjunct Trump’s natal Uranus/NN/Sun and Mars is in square aspect from Virgo. 

Black voter turnout was down a bit in 2016 (from 2012 turnout). Trump has shown his true colors with regard to the African American community, and I suspect that the Black turnout will be up quite a bit, which will help Biden. Pennsylvania’s natal Uranus is conjunct Trump’s natal Saturn/Venus in late Cancer. And, it is in trine aspect to Biden’s Sun in late Scorpio. Pennsylvania’s progressed Jupiter is conjunct Biden’s progressed Jupiter. 

It’s pretty close, astrologically speaking. But, the other factors mentioned above will cause the state to go for Joe Biden. Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic will add to Biden’s lead. The fact that Biden was born in Scranton will also help him win the state. On August 17, Nate Silver’s 538 blog has Biden up 6.4 points and the RCP polling average has Biden up 6.4 points. I think that gap will narrow some by election day - maybe Biden by 3.5 points.

US Presidential Election - Florida

When making a prediction for the US presidential election, I like to compare the astrological charts of the candidates to the horoscopes for the states. I’m unable to do this for all fifty states, so I stick with the battleground states. And, the biggest battleground state with the most electoral votes is the state of Florida. The free will of human beings is involved and what is going on in the world and in the USA is important as well. I also like to look at the polls. It’s as good a tool for such predictions as Astrology, because such elections are very difficult to predict.

Predicting the election in Florida is particularly difficult, because it is always very close. Even in the 2008 election, Barack Obama only won Florida by a 2.8% margin. In the 2016 election, Trump won Florida by a 1.2% margin. In addition, Florida election integrity is not the best. Everyone remembers the hanging chads in the 2000 presidential election. And, Trump seems determined to make voting more difficult this year. With those things in mind, I’ll continue with the analysis.

Florida has a stellium in late Aquarius which is in a trine aspect to Donald Trump’s Uranus/NN/Sun in Gemini (in the tenth). That is very favorable. However, Florida’s natal Saturn is in opposition to Donald Trump’s natal Pluto. The Florida business community might not be happy with the President - especially at this time. Florida’s progressed Moon is at 20 Gemini on November 3, 2020. That is a very favorable aspect as well - especially because the Moon signifies the people. Florida’s P Sun is conjunct Donald Trump’s P Sun. It’s likely that the Governor will do everything he can to deliver the election to the President. Florida’s progressed Mercury is at 27 Virgo and in square aspect to Trump’s natal Sun. The Florida media is not likely to be very friendly to the President. This may counter some of the Governor’s efforts on Trump’s behalf. But, overall, Trump’s chart(s) looks very good when compared to Florida’s chart(s). 

Joe Biden has at least one very favorable aspect compared to Florida’s chart(s). His natal Sun and Venus in Scorpio is conjunct Florida’s natal NN. This would tend to indicate that he is tied in with Florida’s destiny. And, his running mate may be very beneficial to his prospects in the state. Florida’s P Mercury (in late Virgo) and P Venus (in very early Libra) favorably activates Biden’s N Neptune (in the tenth)  in early Libra trine N Uranus in early Gemini (and conjunct his N Descendant). This is another indication that Biden’s running partner may help his prospects in the state. On the downside, Florida’s stellium in late Aquarius is square to Biden’s Sun. 

Astrologically, it looks quite close as well. But, since Trump is the Incumbent, I’d have to give this portion of the analysis to Trump.

However, what has happened with regard to this coronavirus pandemic may make a big difference in this case. President Trump has bungled and really screwed up the response to the pandemic. And, the pandemic has hit Florida really hard. So, Trump being the Incumbent may actually work against him this year - in a big way. Older Floridians are abandoning him at this time, and Biden’s polling is looking very good in the state at this point. On August 16, Nate Silver’s 538 site had Biden ahead by 5.1 points, and the RCP polling average shows Biden ahead by 5.0 points. Look for those numbers to tighten a bit as pollsters switch from registered voter screens to likely voter screens. Anyway, if the election were to be held today, Biden would probably win. But, we will need to wait a while longer to see if this trend holds. If it does, I’d give Florida to Joe Biden.  

Trump really needs Florida to win a second term. If not, he will need to win all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He is polling poorly in all of them. Biden just needs one of those states if he wins Florida. Or, he could substitute with Arizona or North Carolina. His polling numbers suggest that he is ahead in Arizona and it’s about even in North Carolina.

UPDATE 1:

We got three Florida polls today - October 6, 2020. The University Of North Florida poll is the one everyone seems to be talking about. This poll shows Biden up by six points. Nate Silver rates this pollster A/B (that’s very good). This pollster interviewed 3,142 likely voters. They oversampled Latino voters, and they even divided them out by nationality - Cuban, Puerto Rican, Mexican, etc. They show Biden ahead with Latinos 54-39. That looks reasonable - the gap is just a little bit less than Clinton got. So, this poll looks very impressive to me. The MOE is 1.8%. Suffolk University also released a poll for Florida showing the race even (45-45). Nate Silver rates this pollster A (also an excellent pollster). However, they only interviewed 500 likely voters. The MOE is 4.4%. 500 voters is not enough in a state as diverse as Florida, in my view. So, I’m not that impressed with this one. Change Research also polled Florida, and they showed a 4 point lead for Biden. Nate Silver rates this pollster C-. The polling average is (as always) more important. The 538 polling average shows Biden in the lead in Florida by 3.5 points. And, RCP shows Biden in the lead by 3.5 points as well. The final RCP polling average only missed the final actual Florida result by one point in 2016. More importantly, the gap is growing as opposed to narrowing. Trump has very little time to turn that around, and they are already voting in Florida (lots of mail-in ballots). And, Biden is still doing very well among seniors (those aged 65 and over) compared to previous years for the democratic candidates in Florida. So, I’ve decided to call Florida for Biden.

Florida election officials begin counting ballots 22 days prior to the election, so we should be able to get a call for Florida on election night (maybe late though). And, with 29 electoral votes, we might be able to call the election the same night.  

Biden Chooses Harris As Running Mate

On August 11, 2020, VP Joe Biden chose Senator Kamala Harris as his VP running mate in the 2020 presidential election. I’ll discuss some of the astrological symbolism for this choice below.

Biden’s natal Moon is at about 1 Taurus. The Moon in a man’s chart not only represents his mother and other persons that nurture him, but it also represents important women in his life. Kamala Harris’ Moon is at about 27 Aries. So, her N Moon is conjunct his N Moon even though it is out of sign. In addition, Kamala’s progressed MC is conjunct Biden’s N Moon. Interestingly, Biden's N Juno is conjunct Harris' N Juno. This is not an actual marriage, but it is a negotiated partnership.

In Biden’s natal chart, his N Moon is the focal point (or apex) of a YOD. It basically means that he needs to pay a great deal of attention to that point or planet in his chart. In traditional Astrology, it was believed to be a fated and malefic point, but it need not be that negative according to modern Astrology. The other planets involved in the configuration are Neptune (in Biden’s tenth house) and the Sun/Venus conjunction in his twelfth. 

Biden’s rising sign is Sagittarius, and Kamala’s rising sign is Gemini (Biden’spartnership sign). And, Kamala’s NN is conjunct her Ascendant in Gemini. Her SA Moon is currently conjunct her natal Ascendant/NN. And, her P and SA Sun is conjunct her natal Descendant.

The Beirut, Lebanon Explosion And The Eclipses

A huge explosion occurred in Beirut, Lebanon on August 4, 2020. As best as I can tell, the time of the explosion was 6:08 PM (local time). Apparently, a warehouse full of ammonium  nitrate blew up. So far, at least 135 people have been killed and thousands of others were injured. 

Transiting Mars (in Aries) has been stimulating the solar eclipse of July 12, 2018 in Cancer and the lunar eclipse of January 10, 2020 in Capricorn. Notice that Mars is in a square aspect to Uranus in the July 12, 2018 solar eclipse in Cancer. That aspect with those planets can be quite explosive.

If we look at the July 12, 2018 eclipse over Beirut, the eclipse point is in the twelfth house and conjunct the Ascendant. That chart is below.